China's Growing Nuclear Stockpile & Rising Military Dominance in Pakistan Ring Alarm Bells for India

A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates that the world is entering a new and dangerous nuclear age. China is rapidly expanding its stockpile of nuclear weapons, and regional disputes now carry a greater risk of escalating into nuclear conflict. China already has 600 nuclear weapons, a significant boost over India's 180, after adding 100 more since January 2024, according to SIPRI's 2025 report. China is expanding its nuclear capabilities at a time when the US and Russia are dismantling older weapons. As a result, the total number of nuclear weapons worldwide has decreased slightly.

China May Adopt a 'Launch-on-Warning' Policy

SIPRI estimates that there were about 12,241 nuclear weapons globally at the beginning of 2025. Out of these, more than 3,900 are operational, and over 2,100 ballistic missiles are on high alert. The report states that China is not only increasing its arsenal but also shifting its nuclear posture. It appears that China is no longer content with a smaller stockpile and may adopt a 'Launch-on-Warning' policy—meaning it could launch a retaliatory strike immediately upon receiving a warning of an enemy attack.

China's Arms Buildup: A Warning for India

China is preparing for a wide range of threats by developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles and sea-based attack systems. Additionally, it is developing the technology known as Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), which enables a single missile to hit several targets at once. By 2035, China is expected to have up to 1,500 nuclear warheads. This represents a major shift from its previous policy of maintaining a minimal deterrent. China's aggressive arms buildup is a significant concern for India.

India Also Enhancing Its Deterrence Capabilities

The research says that throughout the past 12 months, India's nuclear arsenal has grown slightly, from 172 to 180 warheads. Additionally, it is also improving its missile systems. SIPRI notes that India’s new Agni-Prime and Agni-5 missiles are stored in canisters, enabling rapid deployment even during peacetime. Agni-5 was tested with MIRV capabilities in 2023, indicating India is strengthening its second-strike capability. However, its overall nuclear strength still falls short of China's expanding power. India's Strategic Forces Command is also enhancing its naval capabilities. It currently operates two ship submersible ballistic nuclear vessels (SSBNs)—INS Arihant and INS Arighat—with a third, INS Aridaman, expected to join soon. SIPRI says India now possesses a strong nuclear triad, meaning it can launch nuclear attacks from land, air, and sea.

Pakistan Also Strengthening Military Capabilities

Pakistan is similarly investing in sea-based nuclear capabilities and expanding its Babur-3 missile program, which will be deployed on Agosta-90B submarines. SIPRI notes that while Pakistan’s nuclear triad is still in its early stages, it is progressing. The institute highlighted the military conflict between India and Pakistan from May 7 to May 10 as a potential flashpoint for nuclear war. During this conflict, India targeted Pakistan’s Sargodha and Noor Khan airbases, both located near strategic nuclear installations. Sargodha is close to Pakistan’s nuclear base at Kirana Hills, while Noor Khan is near the headquarters of its Strategic Plans Division. A SIPRI researcher warned, “A conventional war could escalate into a nuclear conflict due to strikes on nuclear bases and misinformation.” This situation is particularly dangerous given the growing influence of Pakistan’s military over civilian power—a dynamic recently highlighted by US President Donald Trump’s decision to host Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir for lunch.

Nuclear weapons do not ensure security," according to the SIPRI report's conclusion. Rather, their presence necessitates moderation, transparency, and disciplined political behaviour—qualities that are becoming more and more rare in the modern world. Although the global number of nuclear weapons is lower than during the Cold War, those that remain are more modern, more readily deployable, and potentially involved in more dangerous types of conflicts than ever before.